And for a Friday, as the world is getting further destabilised and the developed economies are also staring at runaway Inflation, some thoughts….. some musings…..
Even as the Ukrainian crisis continues and US led sanctions taking a heavy toll on Russian citizens, China is gleefully widening its arms to welcome Russia and keep Putin within its tight stranglehold. There is churning in Nordic countries, particularly Finland which shares a 1300 kms land border with Russia and is a EU member, but now being nudged to also get into NATO like Ukraine, is naturally inviting the wrath of an already infuriated Russia. Well, where is all this heading. Who moves what on the world chess board is totally unpredictable. So every country will be watchful and do what, in their own analysis, is best for its people.
Lots have been analysed on galloping crude costs. But another equally strangling price rise is in Agricultural produce, particularly wheat. At the Chicago Commodity exchange, wheat has crossed 486$/MT, almost double from 245 $ just before the war. This is India’s huge opportunity. With a bumper crop last year, all FCI godowns are full and overflowing. Imagine, against a safety requirement of 7.5 million tonnes of wheat, India has more than 30 million tonnes in stocks. Rice, against requirements of 14 million the current stock is more than 4 times. As of March, the total Agri exports had crossed 40 Billion $s. Thankfully, the current prediction is of a normal monsoon this year, which will be a big boost to the Rural economy. With adoption of modern technology, scientific precision farming, the usage of drones and easily transportable locally fabricated solar power units, Indian farmers can maximise this global opportunity of soaring agri prices.
India, though not insulated, is definitely in a comparatively sweet spot for a Developing Country. With its global vaccine capacity and surplus food, let’s all support India’s efforts to consolidate itself on the world stage and help other poor and developing countries, the cooperative way, the empathy way, the SEEGOS way.