And for a Friday as the Ukraine war crosses 100 days with no end in sight, some thoughts….. some musings…..
In hindsight, the warning given by Admiral Achin Schoebach the then German Naval chief at the Institute of Defense Studies in Delhi in January this year, Admiral’s advise for Europe; it’s better to tackle European problems with Ukraine along with Putin, which would be low cost to almost no cost. Lo and behold, under pressure from the West, he was sacked the next day. Rest as they say is history. Middle class Ukrainian citizens in millions are refugees in Poland and other neighbouring countries. Those inside the country are suffering great hardships. The developed and rich world Politicians are all pandering to their own constituencies and only the fortunes of Weapons and War equipment suppliers largely from the US are booming. The draconian sanctions against Russia following the already existing ones against other major oil producers Venezuela and Iran has meant crude prices zooming past 120$ per barrel. Poor and developing countries in Asia, Africa and South America are at verge of collapse with no food and fuel. Local currencies have hit all time low and there is no FE in these countries to import. Amongst SAARC countries, Sri Lanka is living on a day to day basis. Pakistan is facing unprecedented blackouts and shortages. Afghanistan is in ruins. Nepal, Mauritius and all such countries depended on tourism and exports, are hit by 30-75% inflation. Longer the war, harsher the conditions for these countries. Who will hear their cries !!!
In South Asia, India stands as an island of comparative peace and stability. With more than 600 bn$ in foreign exchange reserves, India has the fourth largest FE reserve in the world. It has one of the largest refining capacity and exports Petroleum products, though ofcourse she is also a huge importer of crude and hence hit by the jump in crude prices. Undeterred by the Western media and nudging, India is open to trade and to look after its own defense and energy requirements from the Middle East, Europe, US and now on bilateral trade with Russia. GOI is negotiating a viable route for Rupee – Rouble trade and shipping corridor thru the ports in Iran for export/import to Russia. India has already signed FTA s with Japan, South Korea, UAE, Australia and almost signing with UK. Japan has promulgated a clear “China plus” policy and hence Japanese manufacturing investments are increasing in the country. Germany will also follow suit as in the current “Traffic-light” coalition, there are strong elements from the Greens and Free Democrats who are not as enamoured with China as CDU/SPD coalition was. It’s only a matter of time.
Now all of India’s neighbors have also realised, when “Push comes to Shove” only India can rush food, medicine, fuel and vaccines to them overnight. So let us all support to build a strong India, the sustainable way, the inclusive way, the SEEGOS way.