And for a Friday as news that GOI is clearing selected FDI from high tech Chinese companies, some thoughts….. some musings…..
Having been involved in investments in China and India for a large German MNC, I have been closely watching developments ever since China’s incursions in the Himalayan borders and India’s retaliation by banning Chinese companies and more than 267 Chinese Apps including Tik-Tok, WeChat, Aliexpres etc. etc. How paradoxical that China joined the WTO with India’s support in 2001 when bilateral trade was a mere 3.6 bn $ and trade deficit was 0.19 bn $s. Compare this to 2024. China is India’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade of 136.2 bn $s and trade deficit of almost 100 bn $s. Unbelievable, but that is reality. China supplies more than 43% of India’s Electronics and 40% of its machinery including sophisticated technologies like Integrated circuits. Honestly, current Indian manufacturing and exports to be competitive and sustainable, have no other choice than depend on China. So let’s accept it. China has reached standards of global manufacturing and technology and financial clout as the second most powerful world economy. As Indians we must recalibrate our approach.
Chinese ascendancy has not occurred overnight. It’s been a forty year long Vision drawn in 1980ies. China sent its bright students and young Bureaucrats to study and do research in US and Western Universities. All were welcomed back to China as soon as they completed their research and obtained patents. Their loans were all waived off and huge compensations by absorbing them into the Chinese systems. Compared to the Indian scenario, where middle class parents sold properties and took huge high interest loans to send their children. The brightest from IITs, IIS and other leading institutions went to US. Alas, never to return. How could they? With the pseudo-socialism and controlled economy, labour laws and corruption, Indian economy and reforms were always two steps ahead and one back. Fortunately, over the last two decades, lots has changed in India’s favour. We are back in the reckoning. This is the time to develop a “WHOLE NATION APPROACH” to combat China’s economic power. Ministries, Govt Departments, Industrial Bodies like BCCI, CII, NASSCOM, Economic Experts, Ruling and Opposition Party Experts, Think-Tanks have to come together and built a Consensual Strategic White Paper for the next thirty years.
In the highly volatile global geopolitical scenario, India is an oasis of stability and growth. Let’s all develop a long term China strategy, the “all-of-us-together” way, the strategic way, the SEEGOS way.